Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
